[R-SIG-Finance] Approach to predict balance of account in retail bank

[Biswarup Ghosh]

Hi Daniel ,

My confusion for using an Arima / or any other Time series  model, is,
since for every account I have a series  ,How do I ensure a model which is
applicable to all .
pardon my lack of knowledge in this.

On Sat, Feb 6, 2016 at 5:28 PM, Daniel Melendez <
danielmelendez at alum.northwestern.edu> wrote:

> Hello Biswarup -
>
> Have you looked into state space models?  If not, I'd first start with an
> ARIMA model.  I suggest working with the forecast package.
>
> Regards - Daniel
>
> > On Feb 6, 2016, at 6:23 PM, Biswarup Ghosh <reachbiswarup at gmail.com>
> wrote:
> >
> > Hi
> > I have a database table consisting of balance of accounts over a year
> > during different Business dates . I want to predict the balance of the
> > account in next one month period .
> >
> > Few of the concerns that I am facing is
> >
> > 1. The balances of this accounts are not on same dates like for example
> > some accounts is very active and the balance is changed over every one or
> > two days in this One year period and Some accounts are not that active
> and
> > rarely changes
> >
> > Now What I have done so far is
> > 1. Flagging no of changes of a account per year
> > 2. Percent of balance change on each period
> >
> > Now I am at loss on how to go with the forecasting algorithm.
> >
> > Now based on this parameters how I can give a forecasting , please point
> me
> > to a similar literature on which I can work on
> >
> >
> >
> > --
> > with warm regards
> > Biswarup Ghosh
> >
> >    [[alternative HTML version deleted]]
> >
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>



-- 
with warm regards
Biswarup Ghosh

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