[R-SIG-Finance] Approach to predict balance of account in retail bank

[Daniel Melendez]

Hello Biswarup -  

Have you looked into state space models?  If not, I'd first start with an ARIMA model.  I suggest working with the forecast package.  

Regards - Daniel

> On Feb 6, 2016, at 6:23 PM, Biswarup Ghosh <reachbiswarup at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> Hi
> I have a database table consisting of balance of accounts over a year
> during different Business dates . I want to predict the balance of the
> account in next one month period .
> 
> Few of the concerns that I am facing is
> 
> 1. The balances of this accounts are not on same dates like for example
> some accounts is very active and the balance is changed over every one or
> two days in this One year period and Some accounts are not that active and
> rarely changes
> 
> Now What I have done so far is
> 1. Flagging no of changes of a account per year
> 2. Percent of balance change on each period
> 
> Now I am at loss on how to go with the forecasting algorithm.
> 
> Now based on this parameters how I can give a forecasting , please point me
> to a similar literature on which I can work on
> 
> 
> 
> -- 
> with warm regards
> Biswarup Ghosh
> 
>    [[alternative HTML version deleted]]
> 
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