[Statlist] Séminaire Institut de Statistique Neuchâtel le 13 novembre 2007

[ISTAT Messagerie]

S�minaire de Statistique 
Institut de Statistique, Universit� de Neuch�tel 

Pierre � Mazel 7 (1er �tage,salle 110), Neuch�tel,

http://www2.unine.ch/statistics

Mardi 13 novembre 2007, 11h00

****************************

Professor Hans Rudolf K�nsch, Department of Mathematics, ETH Z�rich

 

Title "Statistics in climate research: Two examples"

 

Deterministic models are predominant in climate research because they represent knowledge about physical processes and because the parameters have a clear physical interpretation.  However, it is clear that measurement errors are not the only source of uncertainty and statistics can and should play a bigger role to assess these different sources of uncertainty within the framework of deterministic models. One approach is to reduce and quantify uncertainty by combining the outputs from different models. I will illustrate this with an example from regional climate predictions. It turns out that the crucial issue are the assumptions about the prediction biases.  A different approach is based on the technique of time-varying inputs or parameters to diagnose deficits of deterministic models. This will be illustrated by a simple hemispherically averaged energy balance model for global climate.

 

 


	[[alternative HTML version deleted]]