[R-sig-ME] Mixed models and learning curves

Seth W. Bigelow seth at swbigelow.net
Fri Nov 23 14:08:24 CET 2012


Giovanna:

your description suggests your dataset consists of 30 observations (5
students X 6 replications), but the degrees of freedom in your model output,
> 100, would seem to indicate that you are incorporating individual log
cycle times in your analysis...

As Douglas Bates said, with 1-2 students per 'previous experience' class, it
may be difficult to make a mixed-effects model. You may want to consider
doing a simple linear regression on each student (sum of logs' cycle time
vs. replication, and compare the confidence intervals around the slopes of
individual students' performance to make some inference about the effects of
previous experience. 

In theory, you could try fitting non-linear models to individual students'
performance to see if there was, e.g., exponential learning curve happening.
But with 6 replications you would probably be unable to demonstrate that a
non-linear model is an improvement over a linear one (e.g., with AIC).

Since you have recorded yarding times for individual logs, you may also want
to consider comparing the within-replication variance among students. I
would expect that variance would be much smaller for the trainer than for
the students with little previous experience (I can't advise on how to do
this, however).

Finally, are you using R graphics capability (lattice, ggplot2) to view your
data? For example:
Library(lattice)
xyplot(prod.time~Trial, data=YardingData, groups=Student, auto.key=TRUE)

Best,

Seth W. Bigelow, Ph.D.
Forest Ecologist
Landgrove VT USA

-----Original Message-----
From: r-sig-mixed-models-bounces at r-project.org
[mailto:r-sig-mixed-models-bounces at r-project.org] On Behalf Of Giovanna
Ottaviani
Sent: Thursday, November 22, 2012 2:55 PM
To: r-sig-mixed-models at r-project.org
Subject: [R-sig-ME] Mixed models and learning curves

My name is Giovanna and I am a PhD student in Norway.

I am a beginner with statistics and R,  hence my ignorance. Apologies from
now.....



I have been collecting data on time performances of 5 subjects using a 1:3
scale tower yarder. The task was consisting in yarding 5 small logs placed
on permanently marked course. Four subjects had different previous
experiences (None, Some) and the fifth was a trainer (Control).

Each cycle time per each log was registered, the sum of the 5 logs' cycle
time was giving the replication time. We had 6 replication per subject .

I would like to predict the time necessary to perform the task.



I have been modelling the time to perform the task (prod.time)versus the
replication number (Trial-in the dataset), the previous experience (factor)
and their interaction. As random effect I have been using the subjects.







> ma<-lme(prod.time~Trial+Previous.experience+Trial*Previous.experience,
data=  Data27_04, random=~1|Student, method="ML")

> summary(ma)

Linear mixed-effects model fit by maximum likelihood

Data: Data27_04

       AIC      BIC    logLik

  1517.445 1541.259 -750.7226



Random effects:

Formula: ~1 | Student

        (Intercept) Residual

StdDev:    7.337648 42.42332



Fixed effects: prod.time ~ Trial + Previous.experience + Trial *
Previous.experience

                               Value Std.Error  DF   t-value p-value

(Intercept)                102.44173  9.561987 137 10.713435  0.0000

Trial                       -6.48494  2.252271 137 -2.879291  0.0046

Previous.experience1       -37.36173 14.786033   2 -2.526826  0.1274

Previous.experience2        47.22627 12.451072   2  3.792948  0.0630

Trial:Previous.experience1   6.55351  3.496401 137  1.874360  0.0630

Trial:Previous.experience2  -7.55163  2.940879 137 -2.567813  0.0113

Correlation:

                           (Intr) Trial  Prvs.1 Prvs.2 Tr:P.1

Trial                      -0.841

Previous.experience1        0.253 -0.208

Previous.experience2       -0.234  0.199 -0.540

Trial:Previous.experience1 -0.207  0.264 -0.835  0.447

Trial:Previous.experience2  0.199 -0.226  0.447 -0.836 -0.550



Standardized Within-Group Residuals:

       Min         Q1        Med         Q3        Max

-2.3519731 -0.6903211 -0.1031114  0.6503216  4.6699702



Number of Observations: 145

Number of Groups: 5

>



Do you think this is good enough to demonstrate a learning effect.

Learning curves are exponential. I have been trying to log transform the
response variable but then p-values are saying that previous experience has
no significance.



>  mb<-lme(log.prodtime~Trial+Previous.experience+Trial*Previous.experience,
data=  Data27_04, random=~1|Student, method="ML")

> summary(mb)

Linear mixed-effects model fit by maximum likelihood

Data: Data27_04

       AIC      BIC    logLik

  225.1042 248.9181 -104.5521



Random effects:

Formula: ~1 | Student

        (Intercept) Residual

StdDev:  0.04484554 0.495812



Fixed effects: log.prodtime ~ Trial + Previous.experience + Trial *
Previous.experience

                               Value  Std.Error  DF  t-value p-value

(Intercept)                 4.448206 0.10593072 137 41.99165  0.0000

Trial                      -0.060150 0.02629765 137 -2.28726  0.0237

Previous.experience1       -0.333664 0.16351518   2 -2.04057  0.1781

Previous.experience2        0.368358 0.13776525   2  2.67381  0.1160

Trial:Previous.experience1  0.051714 0.04084708 137  1.26604  0.2076

Trial:Previous.experience2 -0.043036 0.03435150 137 -1.25282  0.2124

Correlation:

                           (Intr) Trial  Prvs.1 Prvs.2 Tr:P.1

Trial                      -0.886

Previous.experience1        0.248 -0.221

Previous.experience2       -0.237  0.209 -0.535

Trial:Previous.experience1 -0.220  0.266 -0.881  0.473

Trial:Previous.experience2  0.208 -0.225  0.474 -0.883 -0.551



Standardized Within-Group Residuals:

       Min         Q1        Med         Q3        Max

-2.7119095 -0.8005032  0.1127388  0.8621127  2.1988560



Number of Observations: 145

Number of Groups: 5

>



The model is surely better (AIC, BIC) also the residuals are looking better
but then should I reduce the model leaving only the Trial number?



How would you present the results in a clear way? I am still struggling to
figure it out. The concept of mixed models is clear in my head but it is
hard to present it.



How should I then plot the learning curve?

I have been plotting the data I have adding a smooth line. Is this good
enough?



Looking forward for your response

Best regards

Giovanna


Giovanna Ottaviani Aalmo
Stipendiat/Ph..D. Student
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