[R-SIG-Finance] [R-sig-finance] Commodity swap?

Bogaso bogaso.christofer at gmail.com
Thu Feb 18 11:32:07 CET 2010

unlike most interest rate swaps explained in common risk management book, I
found that in most of the exchanges like IPE etc, cash flow is generally
happen daily (where for interest rate case it is mostly monthly or quarterly
etc) and all of the case underlying is some futures contracts. 

In ordinary ineterst rate case future expectation is generally replaced by
the futures quote. Therefore my question is, if swap is based on futures
itself then how can I get unbaised expected value as proxy?

Or should I treat this kind of swap contract just like a Basis wherein Basis
= (tomorrow's future quote - fixed) and try to understand the tomorrow's
possible distribution that future quote and hence the VaR just the same way
as Delta-normal approach?

What I mean is that :

VaR in this approach :

5th worst of (Basis[t+1] - Basis[t]) = (Futures[t+1] - Futures[t]), as other
leg is fixed and therefore no risk is there.

Is it the currect? Then how should I incorporate term structure which is
generally the case for interest rate swap?

If somebody can give some view, it would be great. 

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