[R-SIG-Finance] Garch question

babel at centrum.sk babel at centrum.sk
Sun Feb 3 17:51:00 CET 2008


1. Can I use garch model on price series or do I need to transform it to return,  for example ret<-diff(log(x))?
2. If yes, then how can I predict the future values, while I am working with return? 
3. library(fArma)   
  fit1 = armaFit(~ arma(1, 0), data = x)
  predict(fit1, 10)

 1.179176 1.179747 1.180312 1.180871 1.181425 1.181974 1.182517 1.183054   1.183586 1.184113


with Arma there is no problem with prediction. But how can I use ARMA to predict a mean and GARCH for variance?

fit = garchFit(~garch(1, 1), data =ret )     #if I use data=x the estimated coeficients are not significant
predict(fit,n.ahead=10)
 meanForecast meanError standardDeviation
1  -0.007308328 0.5299619         0.4586886
2  -0.007308328 0.5299619         0.4588551
....................................................................................
How can this output help me, to improve the result of ARMA forecasting? Should I add Garch standard deviation to ARMA prediction?
Or I can even use this formula>:

fit = garchFit(~arma(1,0,0)+garch(1, 1), data =ret)

 meanForecast meanError standardDeviation
1  -0.025711384 0.5292999         0.4589430
2  -0.006770741 0.5296301         0.4591042

but what to do with this? I expected values like in pure ARMA>>  1.179176 1.179747  .... ...  or can I somehow transform this return back into price time series?

Sorry for my english and poor statistical knowledge, I just dont understand what to do with garch output. I read that GARCH model gives better result in forecasting than ARMA, but I dont know how to get those future values. The values, that tells you something (price values) not the return series. Anyway, many thanks.

John



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