[R-sig-Epi] Probability of falling incidence

[Ralf Finne]

Hi again!
Some more details are obviously needed.
I have some more data:
Year	Incidence number
1980	28
1981	17
1982	14
1983	26
1984	32
1985	41
1986	42
1987	44
1988	43
1989	50
1990	37
1991	45
1992	48
1993	65
1994	44
1995	64
1996	69
1997	87
1998	74
1999	70
2000	72
2001	67
2002	75
2003	73
2004	69
2005	65
2006	28
The sampling situation is as follows:
All cases out of a population of around one million persons
are recorded.  Tre rise in the beginning is probly due to an 
increasing number of diabetes cases.  In the future a falling
tendency is to be expected, due to better treatment of diabetes.

Looking forward to you responses

Ralf

Message: 2
Date: Wed, 03 Oct 2007 09:38:54 -0500
From: Kevin Viel <kviel at sfbrgenetics.org>
Subject: Re: [R-sig-Epi] Probability of falling incidence
To: r-sig-epi at stat.math.ethz.ch
Message-ID: <001b01c805cb$1fa7f4e0$723a7cce at win.sfbrgenetics.org>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii


> -----Original Message-----
> From: r-sig-epi-bounces at stat.math.ethz.ch
> [mailto:r-sig-epi-bounces at stat.math.ethz.ch] On Behalf Of Ralf Finne
> Sent: Wednesday, October 03, 2007 9:24 AM
> To: r-sig-epi at stat.math.ethz.ch
> Subject: [R-sig-Epi] Probability of falling incidence
>
> Hi everybody.
>
> Below are the incidence numbers for  end-stage renal disease
> in the Helsinki region for the past five years.
>
> The following question has arisen:
>
> What is the probability  that the decreased  incidence for
> 2006 is due to random variablilty and not caused by any
> systematic effect?
>
> 2002   75
> 2003   73
> 2004   69
> 2005   65
> 2006   28
>
> Are there any solutions available in R?
>
> Very thankful for your answers

Ralf,

 This is not enough data for us to be able to suggest a test.  We would
need to know the study design, with particular emphasis on the
statistical
sampling strategy (stratified, simple random sampling, etc.).  28 cases
out
of 1000 p-y is much different from 280 cases out of 10000 p-y, for
instance.

 Unfortunately, I am only lurker on this list and cannot suggest a
procedure in R.


HTH,

Kevin


Kevin Viel, PhD
Post-doctoral fellow
Department of Genetics
Southwest Foundation for Biomedical Research
San Antonio, TX 78227




Hi everybody.

Below are the incidence numbers for  end-stage renal disease in the
Helsinki region for the past five years.

The following question has arisen:

What is the probability  that the decreased  incidence for 2006
is due to random variablilty and not caused by any systematic effect?

2002   75
2003   73
2004   69
2005   65
2006   28

Are there any solutions available in R?

Very thankful for your answers

Ralf Finne
Svenska yrkeshöskolan 
Vasa Finland