[R-sig-Epi] Probability of falling incidence

[Kevin Viel]

> -----Original Message-----
> From: r-sig-epi-bounces at stat.math.ethz.ch 
> [mailto:r-sig-epi-bounces at stat.math.ethz.ch] On Behalf Of Ralf Finne
> Sent: Wednesday, October 03, 2007 9:24 AM
> To: r-sig-epi at stat.math.ethz.ch
> Subject: [R-sig-Epi] Probability of falling incidence
> 
> Hi everybody.
> 
> Below are the incidence numbers for  end-stage renal disease 
> in the Helsinki region for the past five years.
> 
> The following question has arisen:
> 
> What is the probability  that the decreased  incidence for 
> 2006 is due to random variablilty and not caused by any 
> systematic effect?
> 
> 2002   75
> 2003   73
> 2004   69
> 2005   65
> 2006   28
> 
> Are there any solutions available in R?
> 
> Very thankful for your answers

Ralf,

  This is not enough data for us to be able to suggest a test.  We would
need to know the study design, with particular emphasis on the statistical
sampling strategy (stratified, simple random sampling, etc.).  28 cases out
of 1000 p-y is much different from 280 cases out of 10000 p-y, for instance.

  Unfortunately, I am only lurker on this list and cannot suggest a
procedure in R.


HTH,

Kevin


Kevin Viel, PhD
Post-doctoral fellow
Department of Genetics
Southwest Foundation for Biomedical Research
San Antonio, TX 78227