[R] Package "demography" - calculating percentiles of survival probabilities distribution

[David Winsemius]

On Apr 21, 2012, at 6:05 AM, jolo999 wrote:

> Hi David,
>
> thanks for your patience and your comment. Unfortunately, your code  
> - if I
> understood it correctly - is still not what I am looking for. I try to
> describe an example as you suggested:

I was asking for a working example (as implied by suggesting you could  
start with one of the examples in the package help pages.)  Not a hand- 
waving exercise.

>
> I assume that the Lee-Carter-Forecast-Modell generates different  
> sample
> paths or simulation runs, e.g. 1000 simulations.

Produce the code that does this. I offered code that produced a L-C-M  
forecast and that object (as far as I can tell)  doesn't meet  
assumptions you are making. So you must be using different code (or  
you have  a deeper understanding than I.)

-- 
David.


> Within each simulation, a
> mortality table is generated for all covered ages (0-100 in my case)  
> and a
> forecast period for x years.
>
> What I am looking for is a possibility to extract percentiles from  
> these
> sample paths or simulations, for example:
>
> What is the 50%tile (or 75%tile, 80%tile, 95%tile etc.) survival  
> probability
> of a (for example) 65 year old person in the first forecast year  
> (FCY1)
> based on the 1000 simulations or sample paths.
>
> Now I want to let this 65 year old person age for the next 10 years  
> that
> means
>
> --> What is the 50%ile (or 75%tile, 80%tile, 95%tile etc.) survival
> probability of a 66 year old person in FCY2
> --> What is the 50%ile (or 75%tile, 80%tile, 95%tile etc.) survival
> probability of a 67 year old person in FCY3
> --> What is the 50%ile (or 75%tile, 80%tile, 95%tile etc.) survival
> probability of a 68 year old person in FCY4
> ... and so on.
>
> Sorry, I dodn't know better to describe my problem. Hope you can help!
>
> Thanks in advance and have a nice weekend!
>
> Best
> Jonas
>
> --
> View this message in context: http://r.789695.n4.nabble.com/Package-demography-calculating-percentiles-of-survival-probability-distribution-tp4575145p4576203.html
> Sent from the R help mailing list archive at Nabble.com.
>
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> and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.

David Winsemius, MD
West Hartford, CT