[R] Package "demography" - calculating percentiles of survival probabilities distribution
jolo999
jonas.lorson at ebs.de
Sat Apr 21 12:05:06 CEST 2012
Hi David,
thanks for your patience and your comment. Unfortunately, your code - if I
understood it correctly - is still not what I am looking for. I try to
describe an example as you suggested:
I assume that the Lee-Carter-Forecast-Modell generates different sample
paths or simulation runs, e.g. 1000 simulations. Within each simulation, a
mortality table is generated for all covered ages (0-100 in my case) and a
forecast period for x years.
What I am looking for is a possibility to extract percentiles from these
sample paths or simulations, for example:
What is the 50%tile (or 75%tile, 80%tile, 95%tile etc.) survival probability
of a (for example) 65 year old person in the first forecast year (FCY1)
based on the 1000 simulations or sample paths.
Now I want to let this 65 year old person age for the next 10 years that
means
--> What is the 50%ile (or 75%tile, 80%tile, 95%tile etc.) survival
probability of a 66 year old person in FCY2
--> What is the 50%ile (or 75%tile, 80%tile, 95%tile etc.) survival
probability of a 67 year old person in FCY3
--> What is the 50%ile (or 75%tile, 80%tile, 95%tile etc.) survival
probability of a 68 year old person in FCY4
... and so on.
Sorry, I dodn't know better to describe my problem. Hope you can help!
Thanks in advance and have a nice weekend!
Best
Jonas
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