Dear all,
I have fitted the following model: 

sheep-predation.mcmc<-MCMCglmm(cbind(Puma,Fox,Dog,Surv.sheep)~trait-1,random=~Region,rcov=us(trait):units, family= "multinomial4",data=carnivorosAllsheep,verbose=FALSE)
where Puma,Fox and Dog are the counts of sheep predated by these predators, as denounced by herders (one row per herder); Surv.sheep are the number of sheep remaining after the predations. herders are grouped in 4 different Regions which I specified as a random effect. 

I would like to get the predicted probability of predation with credible intervals for each Region and for each species of predator. I tried:
predict(sheep-predation.mcmc,marginal=~Region,interval="confidence”), but it gives me the prediction for each herder in each Region, rather than the global estimate for each region/species.

Any help is greatly appreciated!
cheers,

Achaz von Hardenberg
Gran Paradiso National Park







	[[alternative HTML version deleted]]

