[R-sig-Geo] credible interval for empirical Bayesian estimates of rates

[Dexter Locke]

Dear esteemed list,

I'm using spdep::EBest with family = 'binomial' for counts of events within
polygons that have an 'at risk' population. The resultant "estmm" is
'shrunk' compared to the raw rate (both given by EBest and calculated "by
hand" rate. All good there.

Using GeoDa version 1.14.0 24 August 2019 produces identical results for
its Empirical Bayesian rate. This was confirmed by plotting the EBest
output against GeoDa's rate and finding a perfect correlation along the 1
to 1 line. All good there.

Two questions:
1. How can credible intervals around these smoothed rate estimates be
calculated?
2. The spdep documentation calls this a binomial family, but the identical
results are obtained from GeoDa calls this "Poisson-Gamma" model here:
https://geodacenter.github.io/workbook/3b_rates/lab3b.html#fnref11 , so
what is actually being calculated? This question may help me answer the
first question..

Possibly the answers are addressed in the literature cited which I cannot
access right now at home without institutional library access.

Thanks for your consideration,
Dexter
http://dexterlocke.com/

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