Dear R Users,

Based on an hourly electricity consumption timeserie, daily average temperature und a holiday table I have set up a mid- to long-term forecast model. The norm and temperature sensitivity is written in other timeseries which provide a Monte Carlo power price model with data.

Now I have noticed, that the December prices are too high and the January too low, and the reason for this could be, that I haven't adjusted the prevailing growth in consumption from 2006 until October 2008. Afterwards there is presumably a decline in consumption due to economic crisis.

How can I best grasp the growth effect over this relatively short time span? - Because I would like to adjust the original consumption timeserie for that growth effect. I am not very experienced with the stl-function which only brings back the following message:

> stl(Data.Consumption$Consumption,"periodic")
Error in stl(Data.Consumption$Consumption, "periodic") :
  series is not periodic or has less than two periods

I thank you for any hint in that case.

Best regards,
Samuel Meichtry

____________________________________________
BKW FMB Energie AG
Energy Trading
Samuel Meichtry
Analyst Energy Trading
Tel +41 31 330 53 99
Fax +41 31 330 56 16
e-mail samuel.meichtry@bkw-fmb.ch

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