[R-SIG-Finance] Optimization of ARFIMA in rugarch - Quick question and context
Nicholas Manganaro
n.manganaro at alum.mit.edu
Tue Dec 2 22:57:22 CET 2014
Question:
Is there a way to query the Nyblom joint statistic result out of an ARFIMAfit class object, the way there is for a uGARCHfit class object?
Context:
I am running an analysis on subsets from 12 return time series from the Fama/French Factors files (source: http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library.html) which evidence skewed Student t distributions.
I initially used autoarfima from the rugarch package using the nlminb solver, which generated results for some of the series, but not some others. I sequentially tried the other available solvers on the entire set of series to see if they would identify ARMA models for more of these sets.
As I hope you can see in the table below the results were mixed. Some observations:
• There was no solver that found ARMA coefficients for all sectors (not necessarily a problem);
• For many sectors, the values estimated for the orders of p and q for AR and MA varied across the solvers; and
• None of the solvers consistently provided either the lowest BIC or AIC score for the results across all sectors.
Solver
nlminb solnp gosolnp nloptr
AR MA AR MA AR MA AR MA
Manuf 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4
Other NA NA NA NA 0 1 0 1
Money NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Chems 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5
NoDur NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Shops NA NA NA NA 3 4 NA NA
Durbl 0 1 5 5 5 5 5 3
BusEq 5 3 5 3 5 3 5 2
Hlth NA NA NA NA 0 5 NA NA
Telcm 5 0 5 5 5 5 5 0
Utils 3 4 3 4 0 5 3 4
Enrgy 0 1 5 3 4 3 5 3
Mkt.RF 5 3 3 2 NA NA NA NA
While I understand that the Nyblom test is an indicator of the stability of the results across a series, within the model results for a sector from the available solvers, a higher Nyblom joint statistic qualitatively seems to indicate higher quality test results across a number of tests, including the coefficient t statistics and the Ljung-Box results per sector. As a result, I was thinking I might use the Nyblom joint statistic as an indicator in automating the selection of the desired model from possible alternatives, but do not see how to query out that result for further testing as an indicator, although I can see it as part of the $fit object.
Please let me know if there is either such a capability for the ARFIMAfit class that I may have overlooked, or a function I might call to generate the joint Nyblom statistic and critical values using the zoo time series data and the existing autoarfima results on hand.
Thanks.
-Nick
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