[R-SIG-Finance] simulation

[Patrick Burns]

Faster still will be:

rets <- cumsum(rnorm(n, sd=sd))

If you want to change that from returns to
prices, then do

init.price * c(0, exp(rets))

Pat

On 29/12/2012 15:12, Dominykas Grigonis wrote:
> Well the simplest but most inefficient approach is a "for" loop. However the best ant kinda sophisticated approach is to use "Reduce".
>
> I did not analyse your problem as it would take some time for dubious knowledge, but here is a simple random walk simulation presented in both ways.
>
> Reduce(function(x,eps) {x+eps},rnorm(100,sd=2.5),accumulate=TRUE)
>
> a=numeric();a[1]=1
> for (i in 2:100){a[i]=a[i-1]+rnorm(1,sd=2.5)}
>
> If you can present me with the paper I might be able to simulate the ones you need. As I am not going to analyse something what I doubt it will have any value to me.
>
> Also for efficiency:
> Unit: microseconds
>      expr      min       lq   median        uq      max
> 1  sim() 1074.634 1100.702 1120.667 1172.0290 4291.588
> 2 sim2()  499.730   507.990   527.797  582.7205 1516.850
>
>
> where sim2 is Reduce function.
>
>
>
> Kind regards,--
> Dominykas Grigonis
>
>
> On Saturday, 29 December 2012 at 13:33, Simone Gogna wrote:
>
>> Dear R users,
>> suppose we have a random walk such as:
>>
>> v_t+1 = v_t + e_t+1
>>
>> where e_t is a normal IID noise pocess with mean = m and standard deviation = sd and v_t is the fundamental value of a stock.
>>
>> Now suppose I want a trading strategy to be:
>>
>> x_t+1 = c(v_t – p_t)
>>
>> where c is a costant.
>> I know, from the paper where this equations come from (Farmer and Joshi, The price dynamics of common trading strategies, 2001) that the induced price dynamics is:
>>
>> r_t+1 = –a*r_t + a*e_t + theta_t+1
>>
>> and
>>
>> p_t+1 = p_t +r_t+1
>>
>> where r_t = p_t – p_t-1 , e_t = v_t – v_t-1 and a = c/lambda (lambda is another constant).
>>
>> How can I simulate the equations I have just presented?
>> I have good confidence with R for statistical analysis, but not for simulation therefore I apologize for my ignorance.
>> What I came up with is the following:
>>
>> ##general settings
>> c<-0.5
>> lambda<-0.3
>> a<-c/lambda
>> n<-500
>>
>> ## Eq.12 (the v_t random walk)
>> V_init_cond<-0
>> Et<-ts(rnorm(n+100,mean=0,sd=1))
>> Vt<-Et*0
>> Vt[1]<-V_init_cond+Et[1]
>> for(i in 2:(n+100)) {
>> Vt[i]<-Vt[i-1]+Et[i]
>> }
>> Vt<-ts(Vt[(length(Vt)-n+1):length(Vt)])
>> plot(Vt)
>>
>> ## Eq.13 (the strategy)
>> Xt_init_cond<-0
>> Xt<-Xt_init_cond*0
>> Xt[2]<-c(Vt[1]-Pt[1])
>> for(i in 2:(n)){
>> Xt[i]<-c(Vt[i-1]-Pt[i-1])
>> }
>> Xt<-ts(Xt[(length(Xt)-n+1):length(Xt)])
>> plot(Xt)
>>
>> ## Eq. 14 (pice dynamics)
>> P_init_cond<-0
>> Pt<-Rt*0
>> Pt[1]<-P_init_cond+Rt[1]
>> for(i in 2:(n+100)) {
>> Pt[i]<-Pt[i-1]+Rt[i]
>> }
>> Pt<-ts(Pt[(length(Pt)-n+1):length(Pt)])
>> plot(Pt)
>> Rt_init_cond<-0
>> Rt<-Rt_init_cond*0
>> Rt[2]<- -a*Rt[1]+a*Et[1]+e[2]
>> for(i in 2:(n)){
>> Rt[i]<- -a*Rt[i-1]+a*Et[i-1]+e[i]
>> }
>> Rt<-ts(Rt[(length(Rt)-n+1):length(Rt)])
>> plot(Rt)
>>
>> I don’t think the code above is correct, and I don’t even know if this is the approach I have to take.
>> Any suggestion is warmly appreciated.
>>
>> thanks,
>> Simone Gogna
>> [[alternative HTML version deleted]]
>>
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>>
>>
>
>
>
> 	[[alternative HTML version deleted]]
>
>
>
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-- 
Patrick Burns
patrick at burns-stat.com
http://www.burns-stat.com
http://www.portfolioprobe.com/blog
twitter: @portfolioprobe