[R-SIG-Finance] Interpreting cointegration - ur.df() and ad.test()

[algotr8der]

Hello folks,

I have read several posts on here regarding cointegration and the various
tests that check for this. 

Here is what I have done - where securityA and securityB are time series
price data.

series <- merge(securityA, securityB,  all=FALSE)
series <- as.data.frame(series)
m <- lm(securityA ~ securityB+ 0, data=series)
beta1 <- coef(m)[1]
sprd = series$securityA - beta1*series$securityB

> adf.test(sprd, alternative="stationary",k=1) 

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test

data:  sprd 
Dickey-Fuller = -3.9226, Lag order = 1, p-value = 0.01281
alternative hypothesis: stationary 

> summary(ur.df(sprd, type="trend", lag=1))

############################################### 
# Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Unit Root Test # 
############################################### 

Test regression trend 


Call:
lm(formula = z.diff ~ z.lag.1 + 1 + tt + z.diff.lag)

Residuals:
     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
-0.91172 -0.02737 -0.00097  0.02553  0.98989 

Coefficients:
              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
(Intercept) -2.434e-02  6.790e-03  -3.584 0.000340 ***
z.lag.1     -5.309e-03  1.353e-03  -3.923 8.85e-05 ***
tt           8.143e-06  2.134e-06   3.816 0.000137 ***
z.diff.lag  -5.345e-02  1.226e-02  -4.360 1.32e-05 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 

Residual standard error: 0.05266 on 6624 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.005505,	Adjusted R-squared: 0.005055 
F-statistic: 12.22 on 3 and 6624 DF,  p-value: 5.676e-08 


Value of test-statistic is: -3.9226 6.7405 7.7586 

Critical values for test statistics: 
      1pct  5pct 10pct
tau3 -3.96 -3.41 -3.12
phi2  6.09  4.68  4.03
phi3  8.27  6.25  5.34


Both results indicate that the time series 'sprd' is cointegrated and thus
mean reverting. However looking at the plot one can clearly see that the
series is trending and is not mean reverting. Any thoughts would be greatly
appreciated.

>plot(sprd, type="l")

http://r.789695.n4.nabble.com/file/n3416574/Screen_shot_2011-03-29_at_7.37.39_PM.png 


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