[R-SIG-Finance] labour statistics

[Adrian Dragulescu]

I suggest you create an index that corresponds to your file volume so
your hypothesis can be explored.  Once you have it, share the two
historical time series with the list.  People will then be able to give
you better guidance.

Adrian Dragulescu



On Tue, 14 Oct 2008, Max wrote:

> Hi everyone,
>
> This is not so much of an R question as a statistics question. I
> currently work for the largest pre employment screening company in
> Canada. Upper management has noticed that noticed that usually a month
> or so before any big kind of economic shock happens, that our incoming
> files (requests for a background check) jump up or down.
>
> As the company statistician, they've asked me to see if the
> relationship is strong enough to put together a product that can be
> sold to any kind of firm or organization (brokerages or any kind of
> investing firm, federal ministry of finance, statistics canada (like
> the bureau of stats in the USA), universities etc) that would be
> interested in knowing what's going on with the federal labour
> statistics before Stats Canada does.
>
> In Canada on the 10th of every month, statistics canada releases labour
> statistics for the previous month. The way CFO sees it, *ideally* on
> the (1st to 10th, something like that) every month, the firm I work for
> could be releasing data for the rest of the month.
>
> What I'm trying to figure out is if you were in the position of
> evaluating the final product for purchase, what kind of information
> would make the product credible/viable? Summary statistics? Variance
> covariance matrices? Graphs of the data? Cross Correlation matrices for
> time series analysis?
>
> It's frustrating because I can see a noticeable relationship between
> our file volume and the unemployment rate (in particular,) but I'm not
> sure how to appropriately frame it in a way that another
> statistician/modeler would want the data.
>
> Any suggestions, comments, questions would be great.
>
> thanks!
>
> -Max
>
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