Would anyone be able to help me out with the following (or at the least a
reference covering the technique (using R) that I require)?;

I have a list of events (A, B, C, D), their start date/time and their
duration.

I also have a time series of a level which is generally maintained at
around 90% however it drops at certain times in the year.
>From the time series I have extracted the times that the levels drop to 5%
and the time until it returns to 20% or higher, so for each drop event,  I
have the drop start time and drop duration.

I would like to determine the following:
1.  Probability of an event A-D causing a drop event (i.e., for the the
level to drop to less than say 5%)
2.  Lag between an event A-D and a drop event (This is less important but
would be nice)
3.  Statistics describing the drop duration dependent on each event A-D
(The average would be a start, however a frequency distribution for each
event type would be ideal).

Any help whatsoever would be greatly appreached.

Thanks,
Marie

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