Hi,

have got anybody experience or a starting
point for me, how i can program a function 
which calculate me a probability transition matrix with a data.frame and two states.

I have some independend variable and  a class variable 
for two states - in example one from Jan2003 and the same variables from June2003.

Now i  would like to calculate the probability that PERSON X change 
from classA to classB  between this time-period dependend from
the independend variables.

Until now i think about an "easy" function  what use the Bayes-Theorem, but it's too bad that i'm
not a mathematican.

Thanks for any starting point, idea, link or paper!

P.S.
I now the msm package, but think it's complex for my intention!?


Regards,Christian



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