[R] Suggestions as to how to proceed would be appreciated...............

[Bert Gunter]

Please read the posting guide(PG) inked below. Your query sounds more like
a project that requires a paid consultant; if so, this is way beyond the
scope of this list as described in the PG. So don't be too surprised if you
don't get a useful response, which this isn't either of course.


Bert Gunter

"The trouble with having an open mind is that people keep coming along and
sticking things into it."
-- Opus (aka Berkeley Breathed in his "Bloom County" comic strip )


On Sun, May 22, 2022 at 10:40 AM Bernard McGarvey <
mcgarvey.bernard using comcast.net> wrote:

> I work in aspects of Cold Chain transportation in the pharmaceutical
> industry. These shippers are used to transport temperature sensitive
> products by surrounding the product load box with insulating materials of
> various sorts. The product temperature has lower and upper allowed limits
> so that when the product temperature hits one of these limits, the shipper
> fails and this failure time is teh shipper duration. If the shipper is
> exposed to very low or very high ambient temperatures during a shipment
> then we expect the duration of the shipper to be low.
>
> The particular problem I am currently undertaking is to create a fast way
> to predict the duration of a shipping container when it is exposed to a
> given ambient temperature.
>
> Currently we have the ability to predict such durations using a calibrated
> 3D model (typically a finite element or finite volume transient
> representation of the heat transfer equations). These models can predict
> the temperature of the pharmaceutical product within the shipper over time
> as it is exposed to an external ambient temperature profile. .
>
> The problem with the 3D model is that it takes significant CPU time and
> the software is specialized. What I would like to do is to be able to enter
> the ambient profile into a spreadsheet and then be able to predict the
> expected duration of the shipper using a simple calculation that can be
> implemented in the spreadsheet environment. The idea I had was as follows:
>
> 1. Create a selection of ambient temperature profiles covering a wide
> range of ambient behavior. Ensure the profiles are long enough so that the
> shipper is sure to fail at some time during the ambient profile.
>
> 2. Use the 3D model to predict the shipper duration for the selection of
> ambient temperature profiles in (1). Each ambient temperature will have its
> own duration.
>
> 3. Since only the ambient temperatures up to the duration time are
> relevant, truncate each ambient profile for times greater than the duration.
>
> 4. Step (3) means that the ambient temperature profiles will have
> different lengths corresponding to the different durations.
>
> 5. Use the truncated ambient profiles and their corresponding durations to
> build some type of empirical model relating the duration to the
> corresponding ambient profile.
>
> Some other notes:
>
> a. We know from our understanding of how the shippers are constructed and
> the laws of heat transfer that some sections of the ambient profile will
> have more of an impact on determining the duration that other sections.
> b. Just correlating the duration with the average temperature of the
> profile can predict the duration for that profile to within 10-15%. We are
> looking for the ability to get within 2% of the shipper duration predicted
> by the 3D model.
>
> What I am looking for is suggestions as to how to approach step (5) with
> tools/packages available in R.
>
> Thanks in advance
>
> Bernard McGarvey, Ph.D.
>
> Technical Advisor
> Parenteral Supply Chain LLC
>
> Bernard.First.Principles using gmail.com mailto:
> Bernard.First.Principles using gmail.com
>
> (317) 627-4025
>
>
>
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>
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