[R] A general question about using Bayes' Theorem for calculating the probability of The End of Human Technological Civilisation

[Philip Rhoades]

David,


On 2019-03-20 12:38, David Winsemius wrote:
> On 3/19/19 12:49 PM, Jeff Newmiller wrote:
>> Highly off topic. Try StackOverflow.
>> 
> As it stands it's off-topic for SO. (You would just be making more
> work for those of us who know the rules but need 4 close votes for
> migration.)  Better would be immediately posting at CrossValidated.com
> (i.e., stats.stackexchange.com)


Thanks - I will check that out . .

P.


> --
> 
> David.
> 
>> 
>> On March 19, 2019 10:42:24 AM PDT, Philip Rhoades <phil using pricom.com.au> 
>> wrote:
>>> People,
>>> 
>>> I have only a general statistics understanding and have never 
>>> actually
>>> used Bayes' Theorem for any real-world problem.  My interest lies in
>>> developing some statistical approach for addressing the subject above
>>> and it seems to me that BT is what I should be looking at?  However,
>>> what I am specifically interested in is how such a work-up would be
>>> developed for a year-on-year situation eg:
>>> 
>>> I think it is likely that TEHTC could be triggered by a multi-gigaton
>>> release of methane from the Arctic Ocean and the Siberian Permafrost 
>>> in
>>> 
>>> any Northern Hemisphere Summer from now on (multiple physical and
>>> non-physical, human positive feedback loops would then kick in).
>>> 
>>> So, say my estimate (Bayesian Prior) is that for this coming (2019) 
>>> NHS
>>> 
>>> the chance of this triggering NOT occurring is x%.  The manipulation 
>>> is
>>> 
>>> then done to calculate the posterior for 2019 - but for every
>>> successive
>>> year (given the state of the world), isn't it true that the chance of 
>>> a
>>> 
>>> triggering NOT occurring in the NHS MUST go down? - ie it is just an
>>> argument about the scale of the change from year to year?
>>> 
>>> It seems to be that the posterior for one year becomes the prior for
>>> the
>>> next year?  Once the prior gets small enough people won't bother with
>>> the calculations anyway . .
>>> 
>>> Does anyone know of any existing work on this topic?  I want to write 
>>> a
>>> 
>>> plain-English doc about it but I want to have the stats clear in my
>>> head
>>> . .
>>> 
>>> Thanks,
>>> 
>>> Phil.

-- 
Philip Rhoades

PO Box 896
Cowra  NSW  2794
Australia
E-mail:  phil using pricom.com.au