[R] function predict

[Michaela Berndl]

Dear Sir or Madam,



we are statistic students at the Johannes Kepler University in Linz,
Austria.

In a project we had to analyse the time series influenza from the package
tscount and make a prediction for one year. For the prediction we used the
function predict from the package raster.

Since our data ends not at the end of a year, but at week 23 in the year
2012, we need to predict till the 23th week of 2013.



As identified in the Figure (boxplot of the original data) attached, in the
first months of

every year the recorded cases were always higher than in the rest of the
year.

The other figure shows the prediction with three models (the 3 colored
lines) from week 23 in the year 2012 to week 22 in the year 2013 and the
original data (the black line) for the same time. Due to the fact that the
the peaks of the prediction lines are not even close to the original data,
we are not sure whether the predict function is correct. We suspect that
the predict function just works for a prediction of exactly one year, which
starts at week 1 and ends at week 52.





Kind regards,
Doris Kuttner, Michaela Berndl

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