[R] prediction of sales with VAR model

[Michael Lee]

Hi,

I work in a kitchen production factory and I try to predict sales of kitchen
for an horizon of 12 weeks, and I have to turn into account promotions. My
sales are express in number of command, my promotion are express with dummy
variables. (1 if promotion, 0 else).

The first problem is that my time serie contain a trend and a seasonality.
(but the serie is stationary)
I use the VAR function from the package vars, but after red the package's
guide, I'm not sure if this function could estimate a model for this kind of
serie (trend + seasonality), and it is important for the forecast. I also
use the function estVARXls from the package dse but the results are strange.

The second problem is that I have to use the future promotion to make the
forecast; the var function can give me a forecast for the sales, but I don't
know if we can seize the future promotions (that I know and which I have) in
the function (predict(), or another one if it exists) to obtain forecasts
according these promotions and not those obtain by the predict() function.

Could somebody help me about these 2 questions? just ask me if you need more
information

Thank you by advance, 

M.


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