[R] mgcv (bam) very large standard error difference between versions 1.7-11 and 1.7-17, bug?

Simon Wood s.wood at bath.ac.uk
Sun Jun 3 00:17:04 CEST 2012


the fREML results must be a bug. I'd modified the bam covariance and edf 
code in 1.7-17 and it looks like I must have messed something up. Any 
chance you could send me the data off line?

Also can you try summary(...,freq=FALSE) under 1.7-17 and see if you get 
the same results as before?

On 06/02/2012 05:25 PM, Martijn Wieling wrote:
> Dear useRs,
>
> I reran an analysis with bam (mgcv, version 1.7-17) originally
> conducted using an older version of bam (mgcv, version 1.7-11) and
> this resulted in the same estimates, but much lower standard errors
> (in some cases 20 times as low) and lower p-values. This obviously
> results in a larger set of significant predictors. Is this result
> expected given the improvements in the new version? Or this a bug and
> are the p-values of bam in mgcv 1.7-17 too low? The summaries of both
> versions are shown below to enable a comparison.
>
> In addition, applying the default method="fREML" (mgcv version 1.7-17)
> on the same dataset yields only non-significant results, while all
> results are highly significant using method="REML". Furthermore, it
> also results in large negative (e.g., -8757) edf values linked to
> s(X,bs="RE") terms. Is this correct, or is this a bug? The summary of
> the model using method="fREML" is also shown below.
>
> I hope someone can shed some light on this.
>
> With kind regards,
> Martijn Wieling,
> University of Groningen
>
> #################################
> ### mgcv version 1.7-11
> #################################
>
> Family: gaussian
> Link function: identity
>
> Formula:
> RefPMIdistMeanLog.c ~ s(GeoX, GeoY) + RefVratio.z + IsSemiwordOrDemonstrative +
>      RefSoundCnt.z + SpYearBirth.z * IsAragon + PopCntLog_residGeo.z +
>      s(Word, bs = "re") + s(Key, bs = "re")
>
> Parametric coefficients:
>                             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
> (Intercept)               -0.099757   0.020234  -4.930 8.23e-07 ***
> RefVratio.z                0.105705   0.013328   7.931 2.19e-15 ***
> IsSemiwordOrDemonstrative  0.289828   0.046413   6.245 4.27e-10 ***
> RefSoundCnt.z              0.119981   0.021202   5.659 1.53e-08 ***
> SpYearBirth.z             -0.011396   0.002407  -4.734 2.21e-06 ***
> IsAragon                   0.055678   0.033137   1.680  0.09291 .
> PopCntLog_residGeo.z      -0.006504   0.003279  -1.984  0.04731 *
> SpYearBirth.z:IsAragon     0.015871   0.005459   2.907  0.00365 **
> ---
> Signif. codes:  0 â***â 0.001 â**â 0.01 â*â 0.05 â.â 0.1 â â 1
>
> Approximate significance of smooth terms:
>                  edf Ref.df      F p-value
> s(GeoX,GeoY)  24.01  24.21  31.16<2e-16 ***
> s(Word)      352.29 347.00 501.57<2e-16 ***
> s(Key)       269.75 289.25  10.76<2e-16 ***
> ---
> Signif. codes:  0 â***â 0.001 â**â 0.01 â*â 0.05 â.â 0.1 â â 1
>
> R-sq.(adj) =  0.693   Deviance explained = 69.4%
> REML score = -22476  Scale est. = 0.038177  n = 112608
>
>
> #################################
> ### mgcv version 1.7-17, much lower p-values and standard errors than
> version 1.7-11
> #################################
>
> Family: gaussian
> Link function: identity
>
> Formula:
> RefPMIdistMeanLog.c ~ s(GeoX, GeoY) + RefVratio.z + IsSemiwordOrDemonstrative +
>      RefSoundCnt.z + SpYearBirth.z * IsAragon + PopCntLog_residGeo.z +
>      s(Word, bs = "re") + s(Key, bs = "re")
>
> Parametric coefficients:
>                              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
> (Intercept)               -0.0997566  0.0014139 -70.552<  2e-16 ***
> RefVratio.z                0.1057049  0.0006565 161.010<  2e-16 ***
> IsSemiwordOrDemonstrative  0.2898285  0.0020388 142.155<  2e-16 ***
> RefSoundCnt.z              0.1199813  0.0009381 127.905<  2e-16 ***
> SpYearBirth.z             -0.0113956  0.0006508 -17.509<  2e-16 ***
> IsAragon                   0.0556777  0.0057143   9.744<  2e-16 ***
> PopCntLog_residGeo.z      -0.0065037  0.0007938  -8.193 2.58e-16 ***
> SpYearBirth.z:IsAragon     0.0158712  0.0014829  10.703<  2e-16 ***
> ---
> Signif. codes:  0 â***â 0.001 â**â 0.01 â*â 0.05 â.â 0.1 â â 1
>
> Approximate significance of smooth terms:
>                  edf Ref.df       F p-value
> s(GeoX,GeoY)  24.01  24.21   31.15<2e-16 ***
> s(Word)      352.29 347.00  587.26<2e-16 ***
> s(Key)       269.75 313.00 4246.76<2e-16 ***
> ---
> Signif. codes:  0 â***â 0.001 â**â 0.01 â*â 0.05 â.â 0.1 â â 1
>
> R-sq.(adj) =  0.693   Deviance explained = 69.4%
> REML score = -22476  Scale est. = 0.038177  n = 112608
>
>
> #################################
> ### mgcv version 1.7-17, default: method="fREML", all p-values
> non-significant and negative edf's of s(X,bs="re")
> #################################
>
> Family: gaussian
> Link function: identity
>
> Formula:
> RefPMIdistMeanLog.c ~ s(GeoX, GeoY) + RefVratio.z + IsSemiwordOrDemonstrative +
>      RefSoundCnt.z + SpYearBirth.z * IsAragon + PopCntLog_residGeo.z +
>      s(Word, bs = "re") + s(Key, bs = "re")
>
> Parametric coefficients:
>                             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
> (Intercept)               -0.099757   1.730235  -0.058    0.954
> RefVratio.z                0.105705   1.145329   0.092    0.926
> IsSemiwordOrDemonstrative  0.289828   4.167237   0.070    0.945
> RefSoundCnt.z              0.119981   1.901158   0.063    0.950
> SpYearBirth.z             -0.011396   0.034236  -0.333    0.739
> IsAragon                   0.055678   0.298629   0.186    0.852
> PopCntLog_residGeo.z      -0.006504   0.041981  -0.155    0.877
> SpYearBirth.z:IsAragon     0.015871   0.077142   0.206    0.837
>
> Approximate significance of smooth terms:
>                 edf Ref.df       F p-value
> s(GeoX,GeoY) -1376      1   7.823 0.00516 **
> s(Word)      -8298    347 577.910<  2e-16 ***
> s(Key)       -1421    316  13.512<  2e-16 ***
> ---
> Signif. codes:  0 â***â 0.001 â**â 0.01 â*â 0.05 â.â 0.1 â â 1
>
> R-sq.(adj) =  0.741   Deviance explained = 69.4%
> fREML score = -22476  Scale est. = 0.038177  n = 112608
>
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