[R] Prediciting sports team scores

[Albyn Jones]

Robin Lock at St Lawrence has done this for hockey, see
http://it.stlawu.edu/~chodr/faq.html

As I recall, he has a poisson regression model with parameters for  
offense and defense, and perhaps home 'field' advantage.

I confess I am skeptical that this is the right approach for football  
- teams adjust their strategy and tactics as a function of the  
opponent and the current match score.  Teams are trying to maximize  
the probability of getting a result, not the probability of scoring  
goals.  The poisson model corresponds to a constant rate for scoring.

albyn

Quoting kerry1912 <kerry1912 at hotmail.com>:

> I am working on predicitng the scores for a days worth of matches of team
> sports. I have already collected data for the teams for the season we are
> concentrating on.
>
> I have been fitting poisson models for football games and have worked out
> what model is best and which predictor variables are most important.
>
> We would now like to predict the probability distribution for the scores for
> each team. eg. What is the probability of Manchester United vs Chelsea
> ending 1-1?
>
> --
> View this message in context:  
> http://r.789695.n4.nabble.com/Prediciting-sports-team-scores-tp4303708p4303708.html
> Sent from the R help mailing list archive at Nabble.com.
>
> ______________________________________________
> R-help at r-project.org mailing list
> https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help
> PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
> and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
>
>