[R] ar() - AIC and BIC
J Toll
jctoll at gmail.com
Thu Oct 20 01:22:34 CEST 2011
Hi,
I'm slowly working through Tsay's "Analysis of Financial Time Series"
3rd ed. I'm trying to replicate Table 2.1 on p.47, which gives PACF,
AIC, and BIC for the monthly simple returns of the CRSP value-weighted
index.
The data:
http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/ruey.tsay/teaching/fts3/m-ibm3dx2608.txt
> da <- read.table("http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/ruey.tsay/teaching/fts3/m-ibm3dx2608.txt", header = TRUE)
> vw <- da[, 3]
I can replicate the PACF calculations.
> x <- pacf(vw)
> x
Partial autocorrelations of series ‘vw’, by lag
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0.115 -0.030 -0.102 0.033 0.062 -0.050 0.031 0.052 0.063 0.005
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
-0.005 0.011 -0.048 -0.084 0.012 -0.055 0.078 0.021 -0.048 -0.062
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
-0.060 0.003 -0.025 0.024 -0.041 0.016 -0.023 0.023 0.029
The ar() function returns the same order as indicated in the
book(based on AIC), but the AIC values appear to be adjusted so that
the minimum AIC value is 0.
> m1 <- ar(vw, method = "mle")
> m1$order
[1] 9
> m1$aic
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
22.329967 10.990260 12.066700 3.350972 4.365413 2.462650 1.960128
7 8 9 10 11 12
3.041666 2.243258 0.000000 1.966641 3.942486 5.811573
According to the book the AIC values are:
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
NA -5.838 -5.837 -5.846 -5.845 -5.847 -5.847
7 8 9 10 11 12
-5.846 -5.847 -5.849 -5.847 -5.845 -5.843
Is there a way to get "unadjusted" AIC values(i.e. values that match
the text)? Additionally, is there a way to force ar() to use BIC and
return those values?
Thank you.
James
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