[R] what function use to draw probability of finding data between certain constaints

[madr]

I have simple scatterplot of temperature data taken daily from many years so
at particular date there are usually more than one measurement, but not all
data is complete.

Now I want to draw line that will show me probability of finding data
between defined bands of temperatures, for example +5 deg. C and -5 deg.C.
The output line should have ranges between 0 (almost impossible) to 1
(almost certain) and be very close to 0 in summer and not so close (as in
summer) to 0 in winter when temperatures drop below -5C, it should be
highest for late autumn and early spring.
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