[R] Temperature Prediction Model

[Thomas Adams]

Aneeta,

You will have to have a seasonal component built into your model, 
because the seasonal variation does matter, particularly -where- you are 
geographically (San Diego, Chicago, Denver, Miami are very different). 
Generally, there is a sinusoidal daily temperature variation, but 
frontal passages and thunderstorms, etc., can and will disrupt this nice 
pattern. You may have to tie this into temperature predictions from a 
mesoscale numerical weather prediction model. Otherwise, you will end up 
with lots of misses and false alarms…

Regards,
Tom

Aneeta wrote:
> The data that I use has been collected by a sensor network deployed by Intel.
> You may take a look at the network at the following website
> http://db.csail.mit.edu/labdata/labdata.html
>
> The main goal of my project is to simulate a physical layer attack on a
> sensor network and to detect such an attack. In order to detect an attack I
> need to have a model that would define the normal behaviour. So the actual
> variation of temperature throughout the year is not very important out here.
> I have a set of data for a period of 7 days which is assumed to be the
> correct behaviour and I need to build a model upon that data. I may refine
> the model later on to take into account temperature variations throughout
> the year.
>
> Yes I am trying to build a model that will predict the temperature just on
> the given time of the day so that I am able to compare it with the observed
> temperature and determine if there is any abnormality. Each node should have
> its own expectation model (i.e. there will be no correlation between the
> readings of the different nodes).
>
>
> Steve Lianoglou-6 wrote:
>   
>> Hi,
>>
>> On Oct 21, 2009, at 12:31 PM, Aneeta wrote:
>>
>>     
>>> Greetings!
>>>
>>> As part of my research project I am using R to study temperature data
>>> collected by a network. Each node (observation point) records  
>>> temperature of
>>> its surroundings throughout the day and generates a dataset. Using the
>>> recorded datasets for the past 7 days I need to build a prediction  
>>> model for
>>> each node that would enable it to check the observed data against the
>>> predicted data. How can I derive an equation for temperature using the
>>> datasets?
>>> The following is a subset of one of the datasets:-
>>>
>>>      Time              Temperature
>>>
>>> 07:00:17.369668   17.509
>>> 07:03:17.465725   17.509
>>> 07:04:17.597071   17.509
>>> 07:05:17.330544   17.509
>>> 07:10:47.838123   17.5482
>>> 07:14:16.680696   17.5874
>>> 07:16:46.67457     17.5972
>>> 07:29:16.887654   17.7442
>>> 07:29:46.705759   17.754
>>> 07:32:17.131713   17.7932
>>> 07:35:47.113953   17.8324
>>> 07:36:17.194981   17.8324
>>> 07:37:17.227013   17.852
>>> 07:38:17.809174   17.8618
>>> 07:38:48.00011     17.852
>>> 07:39:17.124362   17.8618
>>> 07:41:17.130624   17.8912
>>> 07:41:46.966421   17.901
>>> 07:43:47.524823   17.95
>>> 07:44:47.430977   17.95
>>> 07:45:16.813396   17.95
>>>       
>> I think you/we need much more information.
>>
>> Are you really trying to build a model that predicts the temperature  
>> just given the time of day?
>>
>> Given that you're in NY, I'd say 12pm in August sure feels much  
>> different than 12pm in February, no?
>>
>> Or are you trying to predict what one sensor readout would be at a  
>> particular time given readings from other sensors at the same time?
>>
>> Or ... ?
>>
>> -steve
>>
>> --
>> Steve Lianoglou
>> Graduate Student: Computational Systems Biology
>>    |  Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center
>>    |  Weill Medical College of Cornell University
>> Contact Info: http://cbio.mskcc.org/~lianos/contact
>>
>> ______________________________________________
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>> PLEASE do read the posting guide
>> http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
>> and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
>>
>>
>>     
>
>   


-- 
Thomas E Adams
National Weather Service
Ohio River Forecast Center
1901 South State Route 134
Wilmington, OH 45177

EMAIL:	thomas.adams at noaa.gov

VOICE:	937-383-0528
FAX:	937-383-0033