[R] lmer family=binomal p-values

Dieter Menne dieter.menne at menne-biomed.de
Mon Oct 19 16:56:59 CEST 2009

Krystyna Golabek wrote:
> Using AIC for model selection I find my minimal model is
> FOLLOW~MOVERSTATUS+DISTANCE however it appears DISTANCE is not significant
> at 95% confidence, see output quoted below.
> However, removing DISTANCE gives a higher AIC=433.5, therefore I will keep
> it in, but am confused as to what is adds to the model. 
> Are the p values given in output to be taken lightly?  
> #Fixed effects:
> #                            Estimate    Std. Error   z value    Pr(>|z|)    
> #(Intercept)              2.06881    0.31086     6.655      2.83e-11 ***
> #MOVERSTATUSSUB   -0.82564    0.28118    -2.936     0.00332 ** 
> #DISTANCE                0.02311    0.01298     1.780      0.07503 .  

AIC based removal does not use the sacred p=0.05 criterion, but a penalized
criterion that with some simplifications is around p=.15. Which is good so,
because even that can lead to simplifications going too far. So keep it;
when you repeat the experiment identically, it is required.

(Frank Harrell: http://markmail.org/message/jdik3brpe22x7k7h)

What is wrong with p=0.075? Only VERY bad journals nowadays use the p=0.05
guillotine as publication cutoff.


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