[R] Offtopic, HT vs. HH in coin flips
William Dunlap
wdunlap at tibco.com
Mon Aug 31 22:55:05 CEST 2009
It gets even more interesting when you ask about which
of 2 triples of head/tail sequences appears first in an
infinite sequence of heads and tails. Martin Gardiner
wrote about this in the early 1970's
Martin Gardner, "Mathematical Games: The Paradox of the Nontransitive
Dice and the Elusive Principle of Indifference." Scientific American
223, 110-114, Dec. 1970
(and perhaps again in 1974). His book, "The Colossal
Book of Mathematics: classic puzzles, paradoxes, and
problems" has that stuff reprinted and updated.
Bill Dunlap
TIBCO Software Inc - Spotfire Division
wdunlap tibco.com
> -----Original Message-----
> From: r-help-bounces at r-project.org
> [mailto:r-help-bounces at r-project.org] On Behalf Of Erik Iverson
> Sent: Monday, August 31, 2009 1:35 PM
> To: Erik Iverson; r-help at r-project.org
> Subject: Re: [R] Offtopic, HT vs. HH in coin flips
>
> Part of my issue was that I was not answering my original
> question. "What is more likely to show up first, HT or HH?"
> The answer to that turns out to be "neither", or "identical chances".
>
> ht <- replicate(2500,
> paste(sample(c("H", "T"), 100, replace = TRUE),
> collapse = ""))
>
> hts <- regexpr("HT", ht) + 1
> hhs <- regexpr("HH", ht) + 1
>
> ## which is first?
> table(hts < hhs) # about 50/50
>
> summary(hts) #mean of 4
> summary(hhs) #mean of 6
>
> So, "What is more likely to show up first, HH or HT?" is of
> course a different question than "Are the expected values of
> the positions for the first HT or HH the same?" I suppose
> that's where confusion set in. It seems that if HH appears
> later in the string on average (i.e., after 6 tosses instead
> of 4), that the probability of it being first would be lower
> than HT, which is obviously wrong!
>
> A quick graphic that helps show this (you must run the above
> code first):
>
> library(lattice)
>
> ht.df <- data.frame(count = c(hts, hhs),
> type = gl(2, 1250, labels = c("HT", "HH")))
>
> barchart(prop.table(xtabs(~ count + type, data = ht.df)),
> stack = FALSE, horizontal = FALSE,
> box.ratio = .8, auto.key = TRUE)
>
> Thanks to all those who replied, and also someone sent me the
> following link off list, it also clears up the confusion:
>
> http://www.mit.edu/~emin/writings/coinGame.html
>
> Best,
> Erik
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: r-help-bounces at r-project.org
> [mailto:r-help-bounces at r-project.org] On Behalf Of Erik Iverson
> Sent: Monday, August 31, 2009 2:17 PM
> To: r-help at r-project.org
> Subject: [R] Offtopic, HT vs. HH in coin flips
>
> Dear R-help,
>
> Could someone please try to explain this paradox to me? What
> is more likely to show up first in a string of coin tosses,
> "Heads then Tails", or "Heads then Heads"?
>
> ##generate 2500 strings of random coin flips
> ht <- replicate(2500,
> paste(sample(c("H", "T"), 100, replace = TRUE),
> collapse = ""))
>
> ## find first occurrence of HT
> mean(regexpr("HT", ht))+1 #mean of HT position, 4
>
> ## find first occurrence of HH
> mean(regexpr("HH", ht))+1 #mean of HH position, 6
>
> FYI, this is not homework, I have not been in school in
> years. I saw a similar problem posed in a blog post on the
> Revolutions R blog, and although I believe the answer, I'm
> having a hard time figuring out why this should be?
>
> Thanks,
> Erik Iverson
>
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> PLEASE do read the posting guide
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> and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
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