[R] A question about forecasting with R

Uwe Ligges ligges at statistik.tu-dortmund.de
Thu Apr 2 12:27:23 CEST 2009

a) This is the *R-help* mailing list. If you want others to make your 
data analyses, there are consultants around  ...

b) If you still want help from the list, follow the posting guide and 
provide relevant information such as some insight to your data. Not many 
of us are clairvoyants and hence most people won't know out of air which 
method is best.

Uwe Ligges

minben wrote:
> I want to forecaste the call number everyday for a call-center. Now I
> have removed the influence of the fluctuation with some method, so
> only thing left is to analyze the trend of the call number every day.
> I have thought of two ways: regression and HoltWinters smooth. But
> when I use regression, I find some day's call number will bcome
> negative, which is obviously unreasonabe. If I use HoltWinters
> smooth ,I let the gamma parameter equal to 0 because I needn't analyze
> the seasonal fact, but the result shows that the increasing trend is
> too big. I adjust the parameter alpha and beta ,which makes the result
> better,but I don't know if it's right. In this case of situation,which
> way is better? Or is there another appropriate  method?
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