Volatility and Risk Estimation with Linear and Nonlinear Methods based on High Frequency Data

 

Authors: Marcel Dettling and Peter Bühlmann

Published: In Applied Financial Economics, June 15th 2004

Abstract:
Accurate volatility predictions are crucial for the successful implementation of risk management. The use of high frequency data approximately renders volatility from a latent to an observable quantity, and opens new directions to forecast future volatilities. Our goals in this paper are: (i) to select an accurate forecasting procedure for predicting volatilities based on high frequency data from various standard models and modern prediction tools; (ii) to evaluate the predictive potential of those volatility forecasts for both the realized and the true latent volatility; and (iii) to quantify the differences using volatility forecasts based on high frequency data and using a GARCH model for low frequency (e.g. daily) data, and study its implication in the context of risk management, i.e. on the quality of two widely used risk measures. The pay-off using high frequency data for the true latent volatility is empirically found to be still present, but magnitudes smaller than suggested by simple analysis.

Keywords: Forecasting, High-Frequency-Data, Predictive Potential, Risk Measures, Volatility

JEL Classification: C22; C52; G10

Length: 20 pages

Reference: Applied Financial Economics, Vol. 14, No. 10, p. 717-729

Download: The preprint is available as PDF (268k) and as Compressed Postscript (158k).

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