Volatility and Risk Estimation with Linear and Nonlinear Methods based on High Frequency Data
| Authors: | Marcel Dettling and Peter Bühlmann |
| Published: | In Applied Financial Economics, June 15th 2004 |
| Abstract: | Accurate volatility predictions are crucial for the
successful implementation of risk management. The use of high frequency
data approximately renders volatility from a latent to an observable
quantity, and opens new directions to forecast future volatilities. Our
goals in this paper are: (i) to select an accurate forecasting
procedure for predicting volatilities based on high frequency data from
various standard models and modern prediction tools; (ii) to evaluate
the predictive potential of those volatility forecasts for both the
realized and the true latent volatility; and (iii) to quantify the
differences using volatility forecasts based on high frequency data and
using a GARCH model for low frequency (e.g. daily) data, and study its
implication in the context of risk management, i.e. on the quality of
two widely used risk measures. The pay-off using high frequency data
for the true latent volatility is empirically found to be still
present, but magnitudes smaller than suggested by simple
analysis. |
| Keywords: | Forecasting, High-Frequency-Data, Predictive Potential,
Risk Measures, Volatility |
| JEL Classification: | C22; C52; G10 |
| Length: | 20 pages |
| Reference: | Applied Financial Economics, Vol. 14, No. 10, p. 717-729 |
| Download: | The preprint is available as PDF (268k) and as Compressed Postscript (158k). |
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