Seminar for Statistics

ZüKoSt: Seminar on Applied Statistics


Time/Place: every Thursday at 4.15 pm at the Main Building of ETH, HG G 19.1

Autumn Semester 2014


Date Speaker Title Time Location
16-oct-2014 (thu)
Frank Bretz
tba 16:15-17:00 HG G 19.1
Abstract: tba

Frank Bretz (Novartis, Basel)

23-oct-2014 (thu)
Ingo Scholtes / Frank Schweizer
Aggregate Networks Considered Harmful: Modeling Non-Markovian Properties of Time-Varying Network Structures 16:15-17:00 HG G 19.1
Abstract: tba

Ingo Scholtes / Frank Schweizer (ETH Zürich)

6-nov-2014 (thu)
Manuela Zucknick
tba 16:15-17:00 HG G 19.1
Abstract: tba

Manuela Zucknick (Manuela Zucknick (DKFZ), Technische Universität Dortmund)

4-dec-2014 (thu)
Martin Schumacher
From conditional survival to dynamic predictions – aspects of application, statistical modelling and assessment 16:15-17:00 HG G 19.1
Abstract: Conditional survival (CS) is defined as the probability of surviving further t years given that a patient has already survived s years after the diagnosis of a chronic disease. It has attracted attention in recent years either in an absolute or relative form where the latter is based on a comparison with an age-adjusted normal population being highly relevant from a public health perspective. In its absolute form, CS is the quantity of major interest in a clinical context. CS constitutes the simplest form of a dynamic prediction in which other events in the course of the disease or biomarker values measured up to time s can be incorporated. In the presentation we review applications in clinical medicine, especially in oncology, and aspects related to statistical modelling with special emphasis on assessment of predictive accuracy. CS provides valuable and relevant information how prognosis develops over time; it also serves as a starting point for identifying factors related to long-term survival and for developing more complex dynamic predictions that can be used for disease monitoring.

Martin Schumacher and Stefanie Hieke
Institute of Medical Biometry and Statistics, University Medical Center Freiburg

1. Van Houwelingen HC, Putter H. Dynamic Prediction in Clinical Survival Analysis. CRC Press, Boca Raton 2012.
2. Zamboni BA et al. Conditional survival and the choice of conditioning set for patients with colon cancer. J Clin Oncol. 2010 May 20; 28 (15): 2544-8. doi: 10.1200/JCO.2009.23.0573.
3. Schoop R, Schumacher M, Graf E. Measures of prediction error for survival data with longitudinal covariates. Biom J. 2011 Mar; 53 (2): 275-93. Doi: 10.1002/bimj.201000145

Martin Schumacher (University of Freiburg)

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